In a research note published on November 10, he welcomed the prospect of stimulus through tax cuts and US government spending. “I must say this is the most positive I’ve felt on the medium-term prospects for US growth for perhaps a decade,” he wrote.
However, Reid adds: “The outcome is probably also potentially dangerous for growth as a Trump presidency has more risk of going spectacularly wrong than most, given his inconsistent approach to policy in the lead up to the election and his total lack of political experience.”
He said: “A persistent unfunded fiscal deficit would push yields up to levels that the debt laden global economy would find overly negative.”
To keep yields down, he said Trump would need backing from a US Federal Reserve “willing or forced” to buy government bonds.
Luca Paolini, chief strategist at Swiss-based Pictet Asset Management was ambivalent. “Longer term, there are reasons for investors to be both discouraged and encouraged by a Trump presidency,” he said in a note published on November 10, noting prospects for stimulus combined with protectionism.
In his strategy note published on November 10, David Kohl, chief currency strategist and German chief economist at Julius Baer, said: “The economic impact of Trump’s victory in the US will lead to higher inflation, higher growth and supports our bullish US dollar outlook.”